Cosenza (Italy), 19 Maggio 2011
Sono sempre più convinto che la fine del programma di Quantitative Easing della Federal Reserve coinciderà con un periodo di ripresa del mercato borsistico statunitense, e i miei ultimi post sono stati tutti incentrati a spiegare perchè ciò dovrebbe avvenire.
Ho anche mostrato come la crescita del Dow Jones possa essere collegato ad un aumento del Dollaro USA, probabile segnale che l'economia statunitense si stia davvero rafforzando e il denaro rientri in Borsa.
Nonostante lo scetticismo generale, mi pare che ora i primi articoli di stampa comincino ad emergere, a conferma delle mie idee. Eccoli elencati:
- The New York Times 18/5 'Some See Rise Ahead for Dollar': nell'articolo si dice che scommettere contro il Dollaro USA potrebbe non essere più una scelta conveniente nei prossimi mesi.
[...] But betting against the dollar may no longer be such a safe play — not necessarily because of any sudden macroeconomic shifts but because of a sense that the long dollar sell-off may have finally gone too far. Since May 4, the dollar is up 4 percent against the euro and 2 percent against the pound, while rallying against the Romanian and Latvian currencies as well. The dollar’s bounce, though too brief to be called a trend, has not been driven by any noticeable improvement in America’s economic fundamentals. Indeed, the faint but real risk that Congress will fail to reach agreement on raising the legal ceiling on government borrowing only underscores the still parlous state of the American economy. At the same time, unemployment in the United States remains stubbornly high, at 9 percent. And there is a strong belief among big money investors that the Obama administration as well as the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, tacitly welcome a cheaper dollar to spur exports and encourage American manufacturers to hire more aggressively. “The U.S. economy is still facing headwinds — from weak housing to reductions in government spending,” said Ray Attrill, a currency strategist for BNP Paribas in New York. “For those reasons, we think the export sector is where policy makers are looking for growth.” But analysts also see another, more technical reason behind the dollar’s long decline — one that may well be ending. Ever since the global financial crisis began to ease in 2009, the appeal of investing in higher-yielding currencies and commodities all over the world has created what, in trader parlance, is called a risk-on, risk-off dynamic. Investors tend to sell their safer holdings, like United States Treasury bonds, when they feel more bullish. Because 90 percent of the world’s hedge funds are dollar-based, those changes in sentiment can have a depressing effect on the American currency. Reserve-rich central banks in emerging markets have also been selling dollars and buying euros to rebalance their reserve portfolios, said Mr. Attrill, citing recent data from the International Monetary Fund.
- CNBC 13/5 'Market History Says Commodities Boom Ending Soon: Strategist': nell'articolo si cita il parere investitori specializzati che si dicono convinti che il prezzo delle materie prime sia destinato a diminuire durevolmente. Sempre nell'articolo si legge che il nuovo recente aumento del coefficiente di riserva bancario deciso dalle autorità Cinesi dovrebbe accelerare questo ribasso dei prezzi, essendo minore la moneta in circolazione.
While the dollar and oil may be trading in tandem Friday, a falling dollar did not play a big role in the commodity price boom these past 115 months, Darda said, pointing out that the dollar fell only 40 percent from its peak in 2001, while commodities soared 240 percent. Instead, the dominant force in commodity prices has been China, he said. In a Thursday research note, Darda said commodity prices are sliding because of a hike in reserve requirements for Chinese banks, which has slowed money growth and increased risk spreads in China. Another factor? A contracting balance sheet for the European Central Bank, he says. “Most observers think ‘it’s different this time’ for commodity prices,” Darda said. And while it may be, he cautions that, in the past, “’it’s different this time’ has proven to be a costly mantra.” This past week, the boom appeared to have stalled, as commodity prices plunged on fears of a slowing global economy and falling demand for gasoline, in turn triggered by hard-to-swallow prices at the gas pump. On Wednesday, U.S. light crude sank 5.5 percent, while silver futures tanked 7.7 percent. [...] While the dollar and oil may be trading in tandem Friday, a falling dollar did not play a big role in the commodity price boom these past 115 months, Darda said, pointing out that the dollar fell only 40 percent from its peak in 2001, while commodities soared 240 percent. Instead, the dominant force in commodity prices has been China, he said. In a Thursday research note, Darda said commodity prices are sliding because of a hike in reserve requirements for Chinese banks, which has slowed money growth and increased risk spreads in China. Another factor? A contracting balance sheet for the European Central Bank, he says.
- CNBC 18/5 'Stocks AND Commodities Cheap Now?': nell'articolo, il giornalista si dice sorpreso di sentire dire da investitori, per la prima volta da settimane, che azioni e materie prime sono diventati un business attraente.
Qui di seguito, il grafico del Dow Jones costantemente aggiornato, a 10 giorni e a 3 mesi.For the first time in two weeks, I'm hearing traders talk about stocks — and commodities — looking attractive. And why not? The S&P 500 is down almost 3 percent from the multiyear high it hit at the end of April. The CRB Index is down almost 10 percent this month. Other than cash, there are not many places to put money. Bond prices keep rising. People are buying 10-year Treasurys at 3.11 percent. You're kidding, right? While some are clearly anticipating that the sluggish economy will bring the markets down much further, others are not so sure. "Looks to me like some people are betting on QE3," one trader said to me this morning. "There is no chance they are going to allow a double dip."
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